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Nigeria is steadily progressing toward boosting its crude oil production to 2.5 million barrels per day (mbpd) by 2026, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC). The growth is expected to be driven by deepwater projects, the revival of dormant fields, and faster approvals for new investments.
Production Gains Already Underway
Speaking at the 2025 PENGASSAN Energy and Labour Summit in Abuja, NUPRC Chief Executive Gbenga Komolafe revealed that Nigeria’s output has already risen from 1.46 mbpd in October 2024 to 1.8 mbpd. He credited the improvement to reforms under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021 and recent Executive Orders, which have dramatically shortened project approval timelines from 36 months to six months while offering enhanced fiscal incentives for investors.
Project One Million Barrels Per Day
Komolafe highlighted the commission’s flagship initiative, “Project One Million Barrels Per Day”, aimed at accelerating upstream production. The project includes strategies such as shared infrastructure, offshore tiebacks, and faster deployment of ongoing developments to maximize output. He emphasized:
“With this momentum, we are firmly on track to reach our 2.5 million barrels per day target by 2026.”
Focus on Marginal Fields
The NUPRC chief also addressed the future of marginal fields, confirming that license renewals will be merit-based and evaluated on individual performance. Firms that meet the criteria will soon receive approvals, ensuring that smaller operators contribute effectively to national production goals.
Outlook for Nigeria’s Oil Sector
With the combination of regulatory reforms, targeted initiatives, and strategic investments, Nigeria is positioning itself to strengthen its role as a major oil producer in Africa. Analysts note that achieving 2.5 mbpd will not only improve the country’s revenue base but also attract further foreign direct investment into the sector.
As production ramps up, stakeholders expect Nigeria’s oil industry to benefit from efficiency gains, enhanced fiscal returns, and a more competitive operating environment, signaling a positive trajectory for the nation’s energy landscape.
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